By Louis Harkell | March 11, 2025
China’s rapid demographic shift is expected to create a widening gap between seafood production and consumption, potentially transforming the global seafood trade landscape, according to a new analysis by Rabobank.
Gorjan Nikolik, a senior seafood analyst at the Dutch bank, predicts that China will increasingly rely on seafood imports as domestic production fails to keep pace with rising consumer demand. This shift is driven by an aging, urbanized population with changing dietary preferences.
“We’re witnessing a demographic catastrophe that’s going to happen in China very soon,” Nikolik said at the North Atlantic Seafood Forum in Bergen, Norway. “After the one-child policy and male preference, China’s birth rate has fallen to 1.01, which is lower than any European country.”
This demographic cliff has profound implications for seafood consumption and production. China’s working population is set to decline sharply after decades of growth.
“Back in the ’70s, ’80s, and ’90s, China was adding the equivalent of one France or one UK to its working population every five years,” Nikolik explained. “But after 2030-2035, they will lose one France or UK every five years.”
By 2050, China’s median age will rise from 40 to 52, with more than 500 million citizens aged 60 or older—equivalent to the entire population of the EU and UK combined.
Urbanization and Changing Diets
An aging population increasingly concerned about health issues is turning to seafood as a healthier protein alternative. This shift coincides with China’s urbanization, which is expected to result in nearly 1.1 billion urban residents by 2050.
“Urban residents consume significantly more seafood than their rural counterparts,” Nikolik noted. “The difference is driven by greater wealth in cities and better logistics for seafood distribution.”
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, rural residents consume approximately 60 percent less seafood per capita than urban dwellers. The ongoing migration to cities, coupled with rising incomes and health consciousness, has made seafood the fastest-growing protein segment in China, expanding at nearly 4.5 percent annually.
“In China, food and health are deeply connected,” Nikolik said. “When people have more money and access, they shift to healthier proteins like seafood.”
Declining Domestic Seafood Production
While demand surges, China’s domestic seafood production is facing constraints. The country, which produces around 70 million metric tons of seafood annually, is undergoing structural changes that will limit future growth.
• Wild fisheries are receiving less government support, with vessels being decommissioned and entire rivers closed to fishing due to overfishing concerns.
• Traditional aquaculture systems like carp and mollusk farming, which make up about three-quarters of China’s total seafood production, are struggling.
“Carp farming is highly efficient and circular, but as China industrializes poultry and pig production, it becomes harder to scale,” Nikolik said. “It’s also very labor-intensive, and as workers move to urban areas, these industries will decline.”
Modern fed aquaculture is growing, but Rabobank estimates overall seafood production growth will slow from its historical rate of 3.3 percent to just 1 percent in the coming years. Meanwhile, consumption is projected to grow at 4 percent, creating a widening gap that will need to be filled by imports.
China’s Economic Shift Toward Consumption
Rabobank’s macroeconomic team predicts China’s economy will transition from an investment-driven model to a consumption-driven one.
“Once you reach a certain level of development, you can’t just keep building more infrastructure,” Nikolik said. “With population growth slowing, the next phase of economic expansion will focus on increasing consumption.”
This mirrors patterns seen in Western economies as they shifted from manufacturing to service-based industries. While overall economic growth in China may slow from 7-8 percent to 2-4 percent, consumption will make up a larger share of GDP.
For global seafood producers, this shift presents both challenges and opportunities. As China’s youth migrate to cities and focus on higher-value jobs, traditional seafood-producing villages in provinces like Fujian face an uncertain future.
“As the workforce shifts, domestic seafood production won’t keep up with demand,” Nikolik concluded.
A Changing Global Seafood Market
The growing gap between China’s seafood production and consumption is expected to make China an even more crucial market for global seafood exporters, reshaping international trade patterns.
Nikolik compared the situation to trade patterns in the US and Europe:
“We have all the resources to produce seafood, but we choose not to because people focus on more valuable work. As a result, we become huge net importers.”
If China follows the same path, the scale of change could be unprecedented.
“Imagine this happening at China’s scale. Their seafood consumption is four times that of Europe,” Nikolik said.
Rabobank projects that China could face a seafood trade deficit of approximately $10 billion by 2030, a gap that will continue to widen if market trends persist.
However, food security concerns could alter this trajectory. “President Xi Jinping has stated that food security is among the country’s top priorities,” Nikolik noted. “But seafood is not a staple necessity—it’s a luxury. So Beijing may be comfortable relying on imports.”